Last weekends picks go 2 for 6 for 33%.  This weeks picks have been updated!

11/01/08 This weekends final analysis is up in the picks blog - as a group we've culled the best of the best bets for another winning weekend.

On new HC Mike Singletary:  I don't think he's going to last. Too... too much something.  He's engaging in behavior that he would have found offensive as a player! He's trying to instill a "team first" attitude - but there are better ways to do it. The mistake he made was to publicly embarrass key players, and the entire team - but he is offended when the locker room  turned him out for showing his ass. Now he comes off a bit whacky. "What happens with the team stays with the team" works both ways - and he was the one to violate that rule first.  We're surprised by this development because our own Dale Sims really wanted to interview Singletary last season, we made the request and I think we came real close to getting that one. Dale wanted the interview because he felt Singletary might be one of the next generation of head coaches. Now there probably wouldn't be a chance at an interview for a little site like ours - but that's ok, it doesn't look to me like he'll be in the job long.

I Can't believe WR Greg Jennings of the Packers turned down an opportunity to extend his contract - unbelievable - Green Bay just doesn't do that every day.  The team was in a spot because they did not meet the minimum payroll requirements of an NFL team, and had to bring up their payroll - Jennings said he didn't want the distraction and preferred to wait till after the season.  Hey Jennings, see Javon Walker.  You will seldom get a chance to cash in from the Pack.  Now team mate Aaron Rodgers has what could have been yours - he didn't seem to mind the in-season distraction.

Have a profitable weekend!

Kurt

0/26/08 Back on track going 4 of 6 on the weekend. The top rated A plays on both days failed to cash in.... However, our "also like" rated picks cashed in at a winning clip and we were able to hit a couple 2-team parlays for a profitable weekend, which more than made up for our A+ pick failing to cover the number.

If you are new to the site please read our Money Management strategy linked at the top of this page - a sound wagering philosophy is a must have for any serious punter. It felt really good to have strong winning weekend, and we're looking forward to the A plays to come around down the stretch as well.

10/25/08 Two weeks in a row we've slumped... but I'll tell you right now we are very very confident we have a great lineup of picks this week.  Up and down the board.

In the NFL there was a lot of cussin whether we liked Jacksonville or Baltimore as our weekly Sunday "A play" - both seemed equally strong.  And Miami graded out nearly as high as NY as a ML upset play....

Have a profitable weekend,

Kurt

10/14/08 Last weekend we hit 4 picks, and lost 5, which was our first losing weekend of the season.  It was particularly disappointing to miss fire with two of our top rated "A" plays.  Still, after last weeks "market correction" we're clipping along at 69% overall.  Check in tonight for Dale's NFL office pool picks.  And Friday morning for our top rated betting opinions.  I'm pissed and aim to uncover a gem this weekend.

10/10/08 The hot streak continued last week. With the "also like" rated opinions winning overall as well; going 3-1 in College with a win and a tie (Denver) in the NFL.  We'll keep on doing what we're doing - posting our weekly picks in the open access blog.  Thanks for the fan mails.  I notice we get a few more of those when the site donation is voluntary vs. a subscribers restricted access area. Seems like the mood between us and our site supporters is closer, more amicable that way... and I'm not getting any hate mail this year over access issues.  Wait, maybe the upbeat fan mail is because we haven't had a losing week yet....

Dale has been very solid with his NFL analysis, and Allen is having a career year with his College takes.  We'll keep on hashing out the weekly picks and work hard to keep the hot streak going!

We do have an A+ rated pick this week, which has been posted in the weekly blog.

Peace,

Kurt

10/02/08 This weeks rated football picks have been updated to the blog!

9/29/08  The weekends A plays go 2-0, and the rated picks went 5-2 overall.  We're counting the Bengals as a loss since we already hit the play and let it ride (after learning Palmer would not play).  The NFL "also likes" went 2-1 overall, with the lone loss being Arizona, who appear to have major issues in the secondary and at safety. Buffalo probably won't be able to take advantage of that next week, but there will undoubtedly be a nice matchup against the Cardinals somewhere down the road. 

I'll update the total play record sometime this week, but all the picks can be seen in the blog archive - anybody who's been keeping track knows we've been off to a very good start thus far.  Check in Wednesday for Dale's NFL office pool picks, and again Friday morning for our best football betting opinions.

9/28/08  The weekends college football picks continue to be hot for us. The rated picks cashed in at a 75% clip. Our "also like" rated picks cashed in at a 66% clip, going 4-2, with all the dogs outright winning. 

This note is specifically for the supporters who donated to our site this season:  Thank you!  I will be sending out emails when we have an A+ football opinion to all those who make a donation to our site fund.  A notice will be posted in the blog when we have an A+ rated opinion (it won't be every week).  The pick will NOT be posted in the old subscriber area.  We appreciate your support, those funds help make it easier to convince my lovely wife why I spend so much time analyzing data, betting on football and posting those picks on the web.

The idea started for this site started almost 9 years when my friend Allen and I were seeing picks on ESPN that would just make us shake our heads.  The talking heads seemed to be hyping interest in games based on upping viewer interest. The games they were picking were contests we projected to be tightly fought that could go either way.

We were somewhat disenchanted with "expert picks" being hyped.  That's when we came up with the phrase "pass because there are better picks out there".  This is the philosophy we ascribe to with our weekly money management strategy - we only bet on the "cherries", limiting our action to 5-12 weekly wagers (including our 2-team parlays). At first the remote web server was located as a free service as a throw in with the local phone company, with limited bandwidth our site picks were pretty much limited to local friends who would call us to see who we liked that week.  The following year we talked to someone who told us we should consider moving our site to another server and getting links... that we could do something with our talents... and that's where we've evolved to today.  The new blog feature makes it is so much easier to maintain and update the site. We'll continue posting our weekly picks in the blog.

Almost 3 years ago I met a lovely lady who accepts that I am going to spend a considerable amount of time analyzing football information, and betting on games.  She is absolutely great - thanks Rose for all your support. Everyone out there can expect our site to keep on rolling on... but please keep those donations rolling in, and be sure and tell your friends about us!  Please stay sharp and remember to bet smart.

Peace,

Kurt

9/23/08  The Saturday / Sunday win and losing streaks perfectly illustrate why we do NOT use or recommend a progressive money management system.  We're looking over the numbers for next weekends football action and it looks like we have several solid plays coming up.  Check back Wednesday evening for Dale's NFL office pool picks, Thursday afternoon in case we have a "rated" pick on Thursdays game, and Friday morning for our complete list of picks for the weekend.

9/20/08  Holy Shit... this might be the best stretch of hot picks we've ever had... even the "also like" rated picks all came through today - going 4-0 in addition to the 4-0 our rated picks went going back to Thursday .  Our A+ rated pick for the weekend, Penn State, cashed in easily.  Thanks to all those who donated to our Pay Pal account, I tried to send everyone an email with the A+ rated pick right up to the last minute, but please keep in mind this is just a one man show at the computer - we don't have a "staff".  I'm doing these emails one at a time as the donations come in to protect each individuals privacy.  I'll figure out how to do a mass private mailing list next time we have an A+ rated pick.  Sorry to those who we missed (donated after or just prior to kick-off), but hopefully we'll get em next time.  And if you play the "also likes" anyway (like I do) then you still cashed in on the pick anyway.

So far this year we have been very successful hitting two-team parlays.  My favorite way to play a two-teamer, which is how I typically play our "also like" rated picks, is to hit an underdog on the ML (such as the ARIZONA Cardinals, who I'm starting to feel the vibes more and more will pull the outright upset - so consider this an upgrade of the play right now) combined with another highly rated pick (usually a favorite). Which ticket at +130 on the ML pays out at 3.5 times your initial investment.  For example tomorrow a two teamer payoff of Arizona & Atlanta would pay a wager of $100 out at about $350 (in addition to your $100 dollars back if your playing the smart tickets - which we explain in our money management article linked above).

BetUS finally paid off my account. I'd like to thank Kevin at PredictEm for intervening on my behalf.  He contacted BetUS on my behalf and helped get the ball rolling on my payout - it took them 6 months... but better late than never - Thanks Kevin! 

So this year I'm trying out a new sports book, wsex.com, I'll let you know how it goes. I've done my home work and they look like the real deal, I'm very optimistic this will be a good book (which I haven't had since Pinnacle closed it's doors to US bettors).  Bodog is a reliable book insofar as payouts go, but I just don't like the extremely tight lines, and how many of the best bets are not available on money lines are parley tickets; I get the sense that is a very profitable sportsbook (which is one I prefer not to use for the majority of my action).

A word of caution is in order. We've been literally red hot the past 3 weeks, some might be tempted to up their action via some type of "progressive" betting method. However, it's important to stay the course.  I'm not going to bump up the amount of my bets, or quantity, because I've learned from experience these streaks have a way of evening themselves out.  It would do no good to my bottom line for me to start increasing my bets and suddenly hit a losing streak.  Though we strive for perfection we realistically expect to hit 57 to 60 percent of our picks overall this season.

9/17/08  Dale's NFL office pool picks are in! (check the blog)  Check back Friday morning for our weekend cherry picks.

9/12/08  We have our weekly college and NFL picks updated in the blog.  Have a great week!  I'm still calling BetUS for my money, they now say I can expect it by the middle of next week... I'll let you know what happens - Kurt

9/08/08  Rated football picks go 5-2 on the 2nd weekend of football action, including 3-0 on Saturday. However, our top rated A+ play, Detroit, really stunk it up. Check the blog later this week for updates for next weeks picks.

9/01/08  We have updated the week 1 NFL picks segment with an A+ rated pick.  Please check the blog for our picks.  Check in this Thursday or Friday for Big Al's week 2 college football picks - let's make some money this week!  Check the blog mid week for Dale's NFL office pool picks. 

8/30/08  Regarding email asking about Dale's NFL office pool picks - I expect Dale will be posting his weekly office pool NFL picks in his blog this year.  As far as site betting picks go Dale's office pool picks are independent of our featured betting picks.  We'll be posting a weekly wn/loss of our football picks under a tab titled 2008 past picks (but the weekly updates will be posted on the blog.  Hope that helps answer the questions.  We're here and we plan to be active this season - but this is not a news or fantasy site - I only update the site about twice a week during the season, usually on Friday or Saturday, and there will probably be an "early bird" odds value post at the beginning of the week.

Thanks!  To everyone using the "Donate" feature (all two of you, since my Mom doesn't count:) It sure is easier than managing that password script.  And we'll make this promise to everyone out there: you will not see sportsbook affiliate referral links on this site.  Every juicy proposal I've seen from them has an inherent conflict of interest because the referrer profits off a player's losses.  And as we stated in the blog and further down on this page some of those outfits are frauds.

OFF TOPIC:  Few have probably heard of our Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin, but regardless of your political leanings we think you're going to like her as VP pick.  Why? She's a straight shooter, not to mention she's pretty hot... but not as hot as my lovely wife:)  Governor Palin has an 80% approval rating up here and is famous for "outing" fraud in her own party (republican), as well as distancing herself from senior Congressmen Ted Stevens and Don Young, who both look embarrassingly dirty and are currently facing ethics complaints.  She's also taking on the oil industry, which is very powerful in our State.  She's not an empty shirt - she talks it and walks it without coming off as holier than thou.  Trust me, if you hear her words and get to know her you'll see why this out of the beltway lady is just what Washington needs.  True, she lacks experience, but she's a quick study, has solid morals and she will not be corruptible.  So from a couple of guys whose football picks you've learned to trust over the years, we say have an open mind when you do your due diligence on this lady - She's an A+ pick.

8/26/08  Hey - Thanks for the kudos in the emails!  Yes, we are up and running this season.  I may not answer everyone, but we do read those emails.  A couple things:  The damn payment script isn't working, or maybe I'm just screwing it up. But returning subscribers can't use there old emails or passwords, and I just can't figure out how to fix it - and I don't want to go through what happened at the start of last season. Programmers are expensive, and it takes time to get one lined up (if any of you punters are programmers shoot me an email - I'll give you a lifetime of access to manage the scripts for the site).  I want to focus on football research and picks, not developing a secure payment script, or programming stuff.  So for now the site is 100% open access, regardless if a site visitor donates or not.  There is a PayPal donate button in the upper right hand column - you don't have to be a member of PayPal to use them as a payment processor - and you can donate whatever you feel the information is worth to you.  This off-season I'll start fixing the bugs in the payment script... Hell if the donate thing works we may just stick with that.  The weekly picks are published in the Football Blog.

We have zeroed in on a couple college picks for this weekend, and they'll be up in the "Picks" section of the Blog.  Also have one NFL pick I know we are going to hit, so I'll put that one up early. We've gone to a Blog format to publish the picks because we can access that from anywhere on the web (including work). So we're not limited to using the software from my home computer for updates.

8/23/08  Site News - A few biggies: 1) We're not going to officially charge a penny for our picks this year.  A couple reasons like -  I'm tired of screwing around with the damn password script, which isn't working again, and I don't want to go through what we went through last year at the start of the season.  Keep in mind I'm no expert when it comes to HTML code and all that programming stuff, I have to hire it out.  Besides, after we got the password script working last year a lot of you stopped coming by!  Maybe this year we'll have a crappy September and you'll stop wanting our opinions anyway :)  Kidding - last year we finished out the season with a 68% record with our A rated picks (17-8), and the A+ picks went 3-1 for 75%.  We look forward to having another solid year.

The second big change is we'll be updating the weekly content primarily via the new blog feature - linked up there in the right hand corner.  This enables me to update the picks from anywhere on the web I can access the internet.  Updating was a bit of a problem at times last year - especially when one or more us were zoning in on a pick just before kick-off, and the guys had to phone it in to me, sometimes I just couldn't get home in time to update the site. So hopefully when Allen calls me on my cell at work when he has that "sure thing' feeling I can steal away for a few minutes to update the picks blog with our picks.

Finally, last season I tried the Betus.com sportsbook for the first time. I try and use 2-3 sportsbooks for my betting action, and try 1 new book every year.  Last year my new account at Betus swelled - but thus far after 3 requests for a redemption I have yet to receive a penny. And they really hit you hard for transaction fees; $50 up to the first $2000, and 2.5% after that. A two and a half percent redemption fee is rather hard to take - needless to say even if I eventually get my money I won't be using them anymore.  I've contacted a few people in the betting world to let them know - so the word is DO NOT use Betus.  I'll be posting a blog on this one, and site visitors can leave there feedback.

We have a short list of potential college picks this coming weekend. We'll get it narrowed down to two and post the results on the blog.

Peace,

Kurt

8/8/08  NFC South Division Picks and team report is in.  Sorry it's been a couple weeks since we've posted. But I've had a hell of a tooth ache the past two weeks.

7/15/08  NFL division previews and team reports are rolling in at a rate of 1 forecast a week.  Check out why we predict the St. Louis Rams will win the NFC West - and how due to scheduling dynamics our win / loss scorecasting models project the Cincinnati Bengals will win the NFC North!

7/1/08  Our first NFL 2008 team report is in - the NFC West!  Most mainstream football pundits pick Seattle to win the division. But we caution against laying a wager on that bet. Read why we feel St. Louis or Arizona is the better betting pick. 

6/17/08 Dale check's in with his NFC offseason team previews and analysis.

6/08/08 Dale check's in with his comments on the AFC offseason team previews and analysis.

4/28/08 Some people have the opinion you can't really grade a draft till 3-4 years go by; but I disagree.  True, hindsight is 20/20, but the NFL draft is anything but a crap shoot. I see a few clear cut winners, and a couple under performing front offices, from day 1 of the NFL draft.  The winners (based on Saturday's first and 2nd rounds):

2008 NFL DRAFT WINNERS:

PITTSBURGH - After they traded down RB Rashard Mendenhall fall to them in the first round. Mendenhall is a great fit here. And "fast" Willie Parker is coming off a serious leg injury.  Mendenhall has the potential to eventually be an every down back, but will be asked to compliment Parker in the backfield this year, giving them a formidable 1-2 combo.  WR Limas Sweed is a tall receiver, a first round caliber talent the Steelers were able to pick up with their second round pick.  Based on pre-draft grades Pittsburgh, and where they were slotted to draft, the Steelers had a great first day - I'll give them my vote for best draft.

MIAMI - Hard to mess up when you have the first pick of the draft. But after the fiasco of Oakland's number one pick extended hold-out last year Miami should be commended for having the guy they targeted signed, sealed and delivered prior to making their selection.  The Fish also netted two picks in the 2nd round. DE Phillip Merling had a 1st round grade, and QB Chad Henne may very well be the starter by the end of the season. Miami had a solid first day of the draft and should have two starters on opening day. Look for Miami to have QB Henne signed and in camp on time, he could very well be the starter on opening day of 2009. What I like here is the Fish addressed the fundamental's with their first 3 picks - LT on the o-line, DE on the d-line, and QB.

NFL DRAFT LOSER:

HOUSTON - This team has serious needs at OT and RB. Yet they traded down in the 1st round and lost out on both RB's Mendenhall and Felix Jones. Let's face it RB Ahman Green's best days are long past, and journeyman RB Ron Dayne doesn't scare anyone. Mendenhall would have been an excellent value, a 20-25 carry back that filled a pressing need. They did draft OT Duane Brown, who may very well turn out to be a solid pro, but most had Brown rated as a 2nd or 3rd round pick. Who knows what they were thinking when trading down, it could have turned out to be a smooth move if they had gotten Mendenhall or Otah, but I suspect things did not turn out the way they planned. And the extra third round pick the Texans netted just doesn't merit the gamble of what it cost them to move down.

MUSINGS:  If you factor in Kansas City doesn't have All-Pro caliber DE Jared Allen, does the acquisition of OL Branden Albert really make this a stellar draft for the Chiefs?  Despite getting DT Glenn Dorsey, who I really like, the Chiefs did not fare exceptionally well on the first day of the draft. 

I like the selection of RB Darren McFadden by the Raiders. Oakland had the most inept offense in the NFL last year, and needed something to spark the offense and take some of the spot light off young QB Russell - they did the right thing passing on Dorsey.

It looks like Cleveland may have got the better of Dallas by trading there 1st round pick last year after all... if the Cowboys had known they would be getting RB Felix Jones for what turned out to be QB Brady Quinn I doubt they would have made the trade.

College Football Picks and NFL Picks

A+ rated football picks had a 64% winning percentage in 2006.  NFL football is the most wagered on of all the major sports. Thus, it is one of the hardest sports to handicap. We take great pride in consistently posting a 53-63% season winning percentage with our A rated Members Bulletin NFL picks - our A+ rated picks, including both college & NFL football picks, cashed in at a 64% clip - down a bit from previous seasons, but still a very high winning percentage.  We focus our picks on football - our interest, and passion is both NFL and college football. And frankly, we don't have the time (or desire) to research and track other sports.

College football actually presents a gold mine of betting opportunities for the knowledgeable bettor; our winning percentage with our college football picks is actually higher than our NFL picks!  This is partially because there typically are more college picks to choose from than in the NFL. Also, College football is more volatile, more emotional, and less scrutinized by the Vegas oddsmakers.

Free Football Picks 

The public loves to follow NFL football, so we lean to covering, analyzing and presenting NFL picks as our free football picks of the week - its what people want. Our free football NFL picks went 62%!  During the course of the football season we post 1 free NFL pick a week. Typically this will be our upset College or underdog NFL pick (a "moneyline" pick, sometimes it's a totals pick). There are typically more betting opportunities during the shorter college season (due to the higher number of college games every week); however, the vast majority of football betting occurs on the NFL, so we strive to emphasize the NFL on our free picks page. (Coming in 2007 we are looking at presenting 1 free college football pick and 1 free NFL pick weekly.)

NFL Picks  -  NFL Team Reports

We post our annual pre-season NFL team reports and division picks in August. In 2006 we went against the popular favorites and predicted the fall of the Bengals, and the rise of the Ravens (but we'll stop right there). We'll post our NFL team reports and NFL division picks on a weekly basis starting in July of 2007.

2007 NFL Mock Draft

We follow the NFL year round, and track off-season player acquisitions, and coaching changes throughout the NFL.  We know each teams weakness and needs; and post these with our mock draft every year. Look for our 2007 NFL mock draft around the 1st week of April. The 2007 NFL mock draft is in.

Feature articles by Football Forecasters:

War in the trenches:

6/27/06 - Dale checks in with part 4 of 4 on his NFL Lineman series. The last installment from Dale's interview with Colt's Pro Bowl center Jeff Saturday.

The basics of blocking:

6/20/06 - Dale checks in with part 3 of 4 on his NFL Lineman series. Based in part on Dale's interview with Indianapolis Colt's Pro Bowl center Jeff Saturday.

The key to any offensive scheme is the strength of the offensive line:

6/13/06 - Dale checks in with part 2 of 4 on his NFL Lineman series.

The key to any backfield is the strength of the offensive line:

6/10/06 -  Dale Sims checks in with part 1 of his NFL Lineman series. We would like to thank Indianapolis Colts center Jeff Saturday for his interview time, and insightful views of what it takes to man the line. This is part 1 of a 4 part series Dale is presenting on the intricacies of offensive line play in the NFL.

Kurt Schumacher sends his AP top 25 ranked College football picks and NFL picks to our local newspaper, the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner, every week for print in the pigskin prophets football picks column. However the selected opinions (the "cherries" so to speak) we put up on this site are the official football picks for record keeping purposes at TrackPicks.com. 

A+ NFL Football Picks

We present our best of the best football pick of the week in this members area football picks bulletin page. Typically there will be two football picks, sometimes there may not be a pick. No promises... no guarantees (if you need a 10 star guarantee there are plenty of other sites that offer em). We'll post a comprehensive analysis of what we like about best College football picks and NFL picks of the week. 

Welcome to Free NFL Picks and College Football Picks by Football Forecasters. Two football fanatics, but otherwise normal guys, presenting FREE College football picks & NFL picks opinions against the Vegas betting line. We claim that our free football picks are superior to the vast majority of "Insider" football picks found elsewhere on the web. All of our College football picks and NFL picks are independently produced. Allen and I strive to present a page free of corporate influences, no pop-ups, link traps, e-mail address harvesting, cookie trackers, or data-mining of any sort. It's just you and us - and the man. 

Peace,

Football Forecasters